AUSTIN, Texas — About 76,000 fewer students enrolled in Texas public schools during the current academic year, marking the first non-pandemic decline in nearly 40 years, according to a report released Monday by Texas 2036, which found that Hispanic students accounted for most of the decrease.
The group analyzed state enrollment data and projected that public school enrollment could decline by about 100,000 students by the end of the decade, although some projections indicate growth of nearly 500,000 students over the same period.
Hispanic students accounted for 81% of the enrollment decline this school year, according to the report. Students learning English and those from low-income families also recorded significant decreases.
Texas public schools serve about 5.5 million students. Of that total, 53% are Hispanic, 24% are white, and 13% are Black.
Carlo Castillo, a senior research analyst at Texas 2036, said the data shows enrollment is declining even as the state’s population increases. He said population growth in many areas no longer corresponds with public school enrollment increases.
Texas 2036 released the report ahead of a Texas House education committee hearing Monday, where lawmakers reviewed enrollment trends and the stability of the state’s school funding system.
The state allocates funding to public schools based on attendance. Some districts have reduced programs and closed campuses in recent years despite a nearly $8.5 billion increase in public education funding approved last year.
During the hearing, Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told lawmakers that the exact cause of the enrollment decline remains unclear.
Bob Templeton, an education demographer, said during the hearing that immigration previously helped offset declining birth rates in Texas. He said districts now face lower enrollment due to fewer births and slower immigration, which could result in reduced funding while serving students with higher needs. He estimated enrollment could decline by about 500,000 students over the next four to five years.
The report found that districts in urban areas, the Panhandle, and along the southern border experienced disproportionate enrollment losses. Hispanic enrollment declined by 2.1%, or 61,781 students, representing the largest year-over-year decrease among major racial and ethnic groups.
Mary Lynn Pruneda, director of education and workforce policy at Texas 2036, said the organization could not determine the extent to which immigration enforcement contributed to the decline.
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa said during a press conference Monday that immigration enforcement could be a factor in the enrollment changes.
Esmeralda Alday, senior director of programs and impact at ImmSchools, said some families have expressed concern about sending children to school amid increased immigration enforcement activity. She said some parents have considered withdrawing students from bilingual programs or shifting them to virtual learning.
