At the Greater Houston Partnership’s annual economic outlook luncheon, Patrick Jankowski, the chief economist and senior vice president, delivered an optimistic prediction for Houston’s economic growth in 2025. As Jankowski nears his retirement after an impressive 41-year career with the region’s largest chamber of commerce, he outlined a positive outlook for the local economy, despite potential uncertainties tied to policy changes under the incoming Trump administration. Jankowski firmly believes that Houston’s inherent strengths and robust economic principles will protect the region from any significant downturns.
Jankowski assured attendees that the U.S. economy’s current strength suggests it is unlikely to face a recession in the near future, which presents favorable conditions for Houston. As he explained, “If the U.S. economy grows, the Houston economy grows.” According to his projections, the Houston area will see job growth across several sectors, including health care, construction, business services, government, restaurants, transportation, wholesale trade, and retail, with a total of 71,200 new jobs expected in 2025.
Highlighting the drivers of Houston’s ongoing economic and population growth, Jankowski identified five key factors:
Strength of the U.S. Economy: Jankowski pointed to a consensus of modest national growth around 2% for 2025, with stable inflation at approximately 2.4% and unemployment rates remaining low. He cautioned about challenges such as the pressure on oil prices and potential impacts from tariffs, yet maintained an overall positive outlook.
Population Growth and Immigration: Houston continues to expand rapidly, with over 100,000 new residents each year. This growth is spurred by a combination of births, in-migration, and immigration, bringing more consumers and workers into the region. This influx includes undocumented immigrants, who also contribute to the economy through their labor and consumption.
Corporate Growth and Economic Opportunity: Jankowski highlighted Houston’s impressive job growth, ranking third among the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, with more than 1.14 million jobs added over the past two decades. The region’s affordability and favorable business climate, characterized by no state income tax and supportive regulatory policies, have made it a top destination for corporate relocations, ranking third nationally in 2023.
History of Innovation: Houston’s tradition of innovation, from advancements in fracking to the expansion of the Texas Medical Center and growing tech sectors, continues to fuel economic growth. Despite a reduction in traditional energy sector jobs due to efficiencies, the region’s focus on innovation supports diverse economic developments.
Houston’s ‘Can-Do’ Ethos: Research from Rice University’s Kinder Institute reveals that Houstonians are overwhelmingly optimistic about the future, a sentiment that fosters investment and growth. “If you’re excited about the future, you’re going to make investments,” Jankowski noted, emphasizing that this optimism encourages taking risks essential for ongoing economic prosperity.
Jankowski’s confident outlook highlights the resilience and opportunity within Houston’s economic landscape, painting a picture of growth and prosperity for the city in 2025.
