AUSTIN, Texas — Texas school districts are experiencing a statewide decline in student enrollment that could continue in the coming years, state education officials and policy analysts told lawmakers during a hearing in Austin on Monday.
Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told legislators that the state lost 75,000 students in one year but said the specific cause of the decline has not been determined.
Bob Templeton of Strive Public Policy said the trend is expected to continue, projecting a loss of about 120,000 students next year and up to 400,000 students over the next four to five years.
Templeton said declining birth rates and increased enrollment in homeschooling and private schools have contributed to the shift. He said the change could lead to reduced revenue for school districts, higher concentrations of high-need students and added pressure on the teacher workforce.
Lawmakers said the decline is already affecting school operations in North Texas, where districts including Fort Worth, Richardson, Coppell and Grand Prairie have closed schools or considered closures due to shrinking enrollment.
State Rep. Diego Bernal said lawmakers should not dismiss the state’s role in the trend and said policy decisions may have contributed to the enrollment shift.
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa raised concerns about the potential impact of declining enrollment on the teacher retirement system.
Templeton said he has not studied the effect on the retirement system but said the issue has raised concern.
The hearing took place as independent school districts across Texas continue to adjust to changing enrollment patterns and funding pressures linked to attendance levels.
