HOUSTON — Texas could see a quieter start to August as atmospheric conditions limit tropical development in the Atlantic during the busiest part of the hurricane season, forecasters said.
Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said tropical activity could remain muted through at least the first week or two of August, citing atmospheric conditions that currently do not favor storm formation.
“If ever you were betting on a sluggish open to the August portion of the hurricane season, it’s this August,” Lowry wrote Wednesday on Substack.
Lowry cautioned that conditions could change later in the month, but said forecast models show little potential for tropical development in the near term.
He attributed the expected lull in part to El Niño, which can increase wind shear and create less favorable conditions for tropical systems to develop.
The latest seasonal forecasts also point to below-average activity in the Atlantic.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast eight to 14 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA expects three to six hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes.
NOAA said it had 70% confidence in those ranges. An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
NOAA plans to release another seasonal update in early August, ahead of the historical peak of hurricane activity.
Colorado State University also expects a below-average season. In its July 8 forecast, the university projected a well-below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States and in the Caribbean.
Despite the forecasts, Colorado State researchers warned coastal residents not to become complacent because a single hurricane can still cause significant damage.
Lowry likewise stopped short of ruling out tropical development later in August, saying conditions could become more favorable deeper into the month.