HOUSTON, Texas — Fuel prices are expected to keep rising heading into the summer, with analysts warning that drivers could see some of the highest gas costs in years as global tensions and seasonal demand converge.
GasBuddy projects that Americans may cut back on road trips this summer, with travel participation potentially dropping from about 70% last year to around 55% this year due to higher fuel costs.
Despite the projected slowdown, AAA still expects about 3.7 million Texans to travel during the Memorial Day weekend, which traditionally marks the start of the summer travel season.
“That desire to travel, that desire to connect with their loved ones, is what’s really fueling this travel demand,” AAA Texas spokesperson Doug Shupe said.
Energy experts say prices are being pushed higher in part by global instability, including the ongoing war in Iran, which has affected supply chains and oil markets.
GasBuddy warned the national average could approach or even surpass $5 per gallon this summer if current conditions persist.
University of Houston energy expert Ramanan Krishnamoorti said prices are unlikely to fall significantly even if the conflict ends quickly.
“I predict that even if the war stops tomorrow, you’re going to see nationally the price of gasoline not drop below $4 for the next six to nine months,” he said.
He added that recovery to lower price levels could take much longer due to global supply chain effects, even if geopolitical tensions ease.
Krishnamoorti also warned that continued conflict, stable federal taxes, and sustained U.S. oil export levels could push prices even higher.
“If all of those things don’t happen, and this continues to say November, we would easily see $6 a gallon,” he said.