HOUSTON — A new survey by the University of Houston finds the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race shaping up as highly competitive, with close margins in both party primaries and narrow leads in potential general election matchups.
Among likely Republican primary voters in March 2026, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 38%, followed by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn at 31% and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%, while 12% remain undecided. No candidate is likely to surpass the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff. In hypothetical runoff scenarios, Paxton holds a 51%–40% edge over Cornyn and a 56%–33% lead over Hunt. In a Cornyn–Hunt runoff, Cornyn leads 46%–39%. Republican voters showed strong support for party leaders, with 89% viewing President Donald Trump favorably and 55% saying a Trump endorsement would increase their likelihood of voting for a Senate candidate.
In the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads with 47% among likely voters, followed by state Rep. James Talarico at 39%, with 12% undecided. Both candidates enjoy high favorability, with 84% rating Crockett positively and 79% favoring Talarico.
The survey also tested six hypothetical general election matchups, pitting Republicans Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt against Crockett and Talarico, with Libertarian Ted Brown included in all matchups. Republican candidates led in each scenario by just one to four points. Cornyn’s narrowest lead was by one point over Talarico, while Hunt led Talarico by four points. Researchers noted that results could change significantly over the next nine months before the November election.
Among likely general election voters, Texans were split on President Trump’s overall job performance, with 49% approving and 50% disapproving. Trump received net-positive approval only on immigration and border security, while issues like inflation, trade, and the cost of living drew higher disapproval. Texans were also divided on whether the state is headed in the right direction, though a majority said the country as a whole is off track.
The survey, conducted from January 20–31 in English and Spanish, included 1,502 likely general election voters and separate samples of 550 likely Republican and 550 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error ranged from ±2.53% to ±4.18%. This report is the first of two planned surveys by UH’s Hobby School of Public Affairs examining the 2026 Texas elections.
