AUSTIN, Texas — The race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat has shifted to a toss-up, with two major political handicapping groups changing their ratings this week as Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico compete for the seat.
The Cook Political Report and Fox News Power Rankings both moved the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up.”
A recent Fox News poll also showed Talarico narrowly leading Paxton, 51% to 48% among registered voters. The three-point difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988.
Paxton’s political record is expected to remain a major issue in the campaign. The Republican has faced criminal charges, impeachment and investigations related to allegations that he abused his office to benefit a political donor.
The Texas Senate acquitted Paxton in his impeachment trial. Federal prosecutors declined to pursue charges, while a securities-fraud case against him was dismissed after he completed a pretrial agreement. Paxton has maintained that political opponents targeted him with politically motivated allegations.
End Citizens United, a campaign-finance reform group that supports Talarico, has made Paxton’s ethics a central issue. The group has labeled Paxton one of the most corrupt politicians seeking office in 2026 and endorsed Talarico.
Tiffany Muller, president of End Citizens United, said the organization plans to focus on questions surrounding Paxton’s wealth, campaign donors and conduct in office.
Paxton’s campaign rejected the allegations and instead criticized Talarico’s campaign fundraising.
Campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy accused Talarico of relying heavily on donors outside Texas and alleged that millions of dollars in political contributions moved through organizations facing scrutiny. Cercy also criticized Talarico’s ties to Democratic super PACs and wealthy donors.
Talarico has not yet won statewide office, while Paxton has held statewide elected office since becoming Texas attorney general in 2015.
The Senate contest is expected to remain closely watched as both campaigns seek to mobilize voters in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades.
