Houston’s first freeze of the season will likely arrive later than usual this year, as warmer-than-normal conditions linked to La Niña continue into December, according to federal and local forecasters.
National Weather Service (NWS) climate records show that the city’s average first freeze typically occurs around Dec. 9. This year, however, meteorologists say temperatures are running warmer than that historical benchmark and do not see freezing temperatures in the immediate outlook.
“The average first freeze for the city of Houston is December 9, but definitely not going to hit that,” NWS Houston meteorologist Cameron Batiste told Chron. “So, looking at a later than average first freeze, and even then, we don’t really have any freezing temperatures on our radar at the moment.”
Batiste said the current pattern is consistent with La Niña, a recurring climate phase that influences weather across North America.
“A La Niña is when we have cooler-than-normal water temperatures off of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” Batiste said. “When we are in the La Niña, we generally have above normal temperatures and drier than normal temperatures, which is what we have seen over the past couple of months here.”
Space City Weather, a Houston-based forecasting site, has issued a similar assessment. While mornings have turned chilly at times, the outlet notes that warmer, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to return periodically, limiting the strength and duration of cold air masses and delaying any sustained freeze.
NWS data from Houston’s official climate observation site show that, over many decades, early December often delivers the first overnight low at or below 32 degrees. But forecasters say long-range signals now point to the second half of December, or later, for the first widespread freeze in the metro area, if it occurs at all this month.
The region’s weather history shows that conditions can still shift quickly. On Dec. 7–8, 2017, snow fell across a large portion of Southeast Texas, with widespread totals of 1 to 4 inches, despite a relatively warm start to that season. Meteorologists say that kind of event remains possible in any given winter, even in a La Niña year, if a strong enough cold front aligns with available moisture.
In the near term, Batiste said residents should expect only modest changes as the next few fronts move through.
“What I can tell you is there’s going to be a weak frontal boundary that moves in late Wednesday into Thursday, but likely won’t notice too much of a difference,” he said. “And we’re monitoring another potential cold front at the end of the week, but the uncertainty is high enough that the front actually pushes through the Houston area.”
Forecasters say they will continue to watch for signs of stronger Arctic air later in the month, while advising residents to monitor updated forecasts in case the pattern shifts more quickly than current models indicate.