Coffee prices in Texas are expected to rise following a new 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, announced by President Donald Trump on July 9, 2025.
The tariff—part of a broader trade policy targeting several Brazilian goods—took effect on August 1, 2025, and has already begun impacting the state’s coffee industry.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, supplies a portion of green coffee beans to the United States. With the new tariff in place, importers and coffee shops across Texas are bracing for cost increases that are expected to affect both wholesale and retail prices.
Coffee shop owners throughout the state report preparing for the ripple effect across the supply chain, from bean importers to consumer-facing cafés. Many have already begun adjusting menu prices or searching for alternative suppliers from other coffee-producing countries not impacted by the new tariffs.
“This is going to hit everyone—from roasters to your morning cup,” said Anna Lopez, owner of a coffee shop in Houston. “We’re doing what we can to absorb some of the costs, but it won’t be sustainable long-term.”
The coffee industry has already faced pressure this year due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices. In March 2025, ground coffee reached a record-high average of $7.38 per pound, driven in part by weather-related damage to South American crops.
Additional Brazilian goods, including orange juice, have also been targeted by tariffs under the administration’s trade policy, raising concerns about broader price hikes for breakfast staples. The measures are part of what the Trump administration describes as an effort to address trade imbalances and respond to geopolitical tensions with Brazil.
While the full economic impact of the tariff remains to be seen, industry analysts warn of continued price volatility. The Texas Restaurant Association noted that small businesses will bear the brunt of the change, particularly independent coffee shops without long-term supply contracts.
Some businesses are exploring alternative import sources, such as Colombia, Vietnam, or Ethiopia, but experts say switching suppliers is not a quick fix. Transitioning to new partners may require changes in equipment, flavor profiles, and logistics.
Consumers, meanwhile, may notice price increases in the coming weeks as businesses begin passing on higher costs.
“It might not be immediate, but the $3 coffee could become $4 sooner than people expect,” said Paul Chen, an Austin-based commodities analyst.
The Trump administration has not indicated whether additional tariffs on food products are planned. The Brazilian government has yet to publicly respond to the U.S. policy changes as of this report.