SOUTHEAST ASIA — Governments and households across Southeast Asia are preparing for a potential extreme El Niño event expected to emerge before August and last through November, as rising energy, transport, and food costs linked to the Iran war add pressure on already strained economies, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming months, warming surface waters in parts of the Pacific Ocean and disrupting normal wind patterns that influence global weather systems.
Meteorologists warned that the shift could weaken or delay monsoon rains in Southeast Asia, which normally replenish water reservoirs and support agricultural planting cycles. Reduced rainfall could lead farmers to delay planting, reduce cultivated areas, or switch to less water-intensive crops.
Agriculture experts said rice production faces the highest risk due to its dependence on stable rainfall and irrigation. Southeast Asia produces a significant share of the world’s rice and palm oil, both of which analysts identified as highly sensitive to climate variability.
Jason Lee, chair of the Global Heat Health Information Network’s Southeast Asia Hub, said agricultural shocks could quickly affect regional food prices and inflation.
“Southeast Asia’s agricultural sector is exceptionally vulnerable to a new El Niño shock,” Lee said. “What begins as a localized, farm-level shock can rapidly spill over into a broader, systemic food-price and inflation crisis.”
Paul Teng, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, said rice output could decline by 2% to 8% in a normal El Niño year, with greater losses in drought-affected areas. He said Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Cambodia face higher exposure due to reliance on rain-fed or irrigation-dependent rice systems.
Teng said palm oil production, concentrated in Indonesia and Malaysia, could also be affected, with impacts typically emerging months after heat stress reduces fruit formation and oil yield.
Economists said higher fertilizer and fuel costs linked to geopolitical tensions have already contributed to rising food prices in the region. Central banks may maintain higher interest rates to contain inflation, even as businesses face higher borrowing costs and governments increase subsidies.
Several Southeast Asian governments have expanded subsidies and turned to coal-based energy production to manage supply constraints, while the Asian Development Bank recently lowered its 2026 growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific from 5.1% to 4.7%.
Inflation remains elevated in several countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, while fuel price adjustments in Indonesia have added to household costs.
Climate specialists also warned that hotter and drier conditions could increase the risk of agricultural and peatland fires in parts of Thailand and Indonesia, potentially worsening transboundary haze.
Helena Varkkey, an associate professor of political ecology at Universiti Malaya, said haze events could strain public health systems and regional cooperation.
“Governments may have a hard time balancing economic and social priorities,” Varkkey said.
Analysts said prolonged food and fuel price increases could heighten political pressure in the region, particularly in countries already facing public dissatisfaction over inflation and governance issues.
Despite the risks, forecasters said governments still have time to prepare by managing water reserves, adjusting subsidies, and issuing guidance to farmers before planting decisions are made. However, they warned that the window for mitigation is narrowing as climate and economic pressures converge.
