Chinese military operations around Taiwan fell significantly in early 2026, with sorties down about 42 percent in January and February compared to the same period last year, and the number of warships deployed around 4.5 percent lower, according to reports.
Experts are analyzing the decline, suggesting several possible reasons: China’s annual “two sessions” political meetings in Beijing, ongoing military purges, US President Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to meet Xi Jinping, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
“I didn’t expect to be worried about the cessation of PLA operations around Taiwan, but the lack of a rational explanation is disconcerting,” said Drew Thompson, senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Some analysts see the drop as a routine pattern, noting that PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) typically fall near zero during the annual “two sessions.” Brian Hart of the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautioned that if the lull extends beyond this period, it could be unusual, but current activity does not yet suggest major changes.
Taiwanese experts speculate that Beijing may be attempting to influence public perception and US policy. “Beijing may be trying to create a false impression that China is easing its threats against Taiwan in order to deceive the US into reducing its support for Taiwan’s security,” a Taiwanese security official said.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has proposed $40 billion in additional defense spending over eight years, a plan facing opposition in parliament. Analysts say the slowdown in Chinese military activity may be related to attempts to undermine public support for Taipei’s defense initiatives.
The United States, though lacking formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, remains its primary backer and arms supplier. Officials warned that Taipei must remain vigilant despite the apparent reduction in PLA activity.
