TEXAS — Texas grocery prices could rise in the coming months as fertilizer costs increase, driven by supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East, affecting farmers’ production decisions and expected crop yields.
Prices for nitrogen fertilizer, a key nutrient for crops such as corn and wheat, have surged since late February. Farmer Dee Vaugn, a board member of Texas Corn Producers, said his fertilizer costs rose from 62 cents per pound in early March to 89 cents by early April, a 44% increase in less than a month. Fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, and disruptions in global supply—particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz—have contributed to the price spike.
As costs climb, farmers may reduce fertilizer use, which can lower crop yields. Vaugn said he may produce about 150 bushels of corn per acre, down from an expected 200, if he cuts back on nutrients. Reduced corn output could affect livestock feed supplies, potentially increasing prices for beef, pork, and poultry.
The impact on consumers may not be immediate. Farmers said price increases could emerge after the Texas harvest season, which runs from July to October, as markets respond to lower production levels. Corn-based products such as chips and tortillas may see price increases first, followed by meat products later in the year.
Farmers said the rising costs add to existing financial pressures in the agriculture sector, where many producers were already facing high production expenses before the latest supply disruptions.
