Texas is on an impressive trajectory to become the most populous state in the United States by 2045, propelled by a surge in homebuilding and an influx of new residents. According to a report by Realtor.com, Texas led the nation in residential building permits in 2024, issuing 225,601 permits, which constituted 15% of all such permits in the country. The state’s booming housing market is a testament to its robust economic framework and appeal as a place to live, work, and invest.
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that Texas’ population stood at 31.3 million as of July, an increase from 30.5 million the previous year and 29.1 million in 2020. This represents nearly an 8% rise over four years, making it the fastest-growing state in the nation. Over the last decade, Texas added 3.9 million residents, surpassing Florida’s 2.9 million, highlighting its growing prominence on the national stage.
The key drivers of this population boom include Texas’ favorable climate, abundant job opportunities, and relatively affordable housing. Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, attributes the state’s rapid growth to its attractive living conditions and economic potential. Texas offers a cost of living and housing market that is more affordable than many other large states, with 47% of its for-sale inventory priced at $350,000 or less, compared to the national average of 40%.
Job growth in Texas has been substantial, with the state adding 2.5 million jobs from 2013 to 2023. This figure is approximately 25% higher than Florida, the next closest state. Texas has maintained an unemployment rate below 5% for the past decade, except for a brief period during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. This economic stability and growth enhance Texas’ allure as a destination for job seekers and families alike.
The migration trends further underscore Texas’ growing appeal. More than one in four homebuyers in Texas is from out of state, with a significant portion coming from California. In fact, 781,237 Californians moved to Texas, marking the largest single-state influx. Additionally, Texas attracted nearly 2 million international residents during the same period, bolstering its diverse and dynamic cultural landscape.
Damian Eales, CEO of Realtor.com, remarked on Texas’ burgeoning status as an economic powerhouse, noting that its dynamic economy, job availability, and favorable climate make it a magnet for new residents. The state’s strategic planning and development initiatives are setting the stage for its potential ascension as the largest state by population in just two decades.
Texas not only offers economic opportunities but also boasts a rich cultural heritage and a vibrant social scene, attracting people from diverse backgrounds and contributing to its dynamic growth narrative. The combination of strategic economic policies, a thriving housing market, and a welcoming environment makes Texas a compelling case study in successful state growth management.
With its current trajectory, Texas exemplifies how demographic shifts, when supported by robust infrastructure and economic strategies, can transform a state into a leading national force. The state’s growth is a testament to its resilience, adaptability, and forward-thinking approach to development.